It’s been a tough few weeks for Manchester United. Losing to Manchester City at Old Trafford is always hard, but when it effectively puts the title beyond your reach it becomes that little bit harder. That blow hasn’t been lessened by a festive period which went wrong, too, as the Red Devils are now on a run of three without a win in all competitions – and as fixture congestion piles up, United are suffering even more problems.
Their opponents this weekend, Southampton, are a team in trouble, too. Having sacked Claude Puel at the start of the summer, the new manager Mauricio Pellegrino has found it hard to turn his squad into anything more free-flowing than his predecessor managed. But whilst the Frenchman took the Saints to a League Cup final and an eighth place finish – essentially best of the rest in the Premier League last season – Pellegrino has struggled at both ends of the pitch and could find himself in a relegation battle if things don’t improve.
With so much festive cheer for both clubs, then, we thought it would be a good idea to tap into it ourselves by asking two men who know their stuff about each club to share some joy before this hugely important fixture for both sides: Niven Marston of ManUNews and Football FanCast’s own Saints fan James Beavis.
The biggest story to come out in the build-up to this game almost doesn’t really have any bearing on the game itself. The transfer of Virgil van Dijk from Southampton to Liverpool has captured the imagination even though the Dutchman is really only trodding a well-worn path from the South Coast to the banks of the Mersey. That said, Liverpool are getting a well thought-of defender, whilst Saints are losing a man who, whilst possessing of quality when he wants to be, simply isn’t committed to the cause.
In a paradoxical sort of way, then will this announcement be a timely boost to Southampton this weekend, now that they’ve managed to get the uncertainty out of the way?
James Beavis: “The fact that such a long-running saga has finally come to an end will certainly be a relief for the club and a positive for the players, but it may not make a big difference to a team that is so low on confidence right now and missing some key players for the trip to Old Trafford, and a manager that continues to make baffling decisions.”
The defensive transfers don’t stop at Southampton, though. It seems all over the league clubs are looking to strengthen at the back, and perhaps that dearth of quality in the position is what led Liverpool to pay such a premium for Van Dijk. Nor does the unfestive despair. Manchester United, too, are struggling without key players and are low on confidence. Indeed, for a side whose defensive organisation seemed to be their greatest strength the last time the two sides met at St Mary’s in September, United have kept just one clean sheet in nine, and have conceded two goals in each of their last three games.
Niven Marston: “United are widely regarded to have one of the best defences in the league, and but for a recent dip in form they have been fairly solid at the back since Mourinho came in. Although I personally don’t see United buying another defender in the January transfer window, many fans have called on Jose to invest in his back line. The centre of defence is surely far too packed to make further acquisitions; Jose seemingly trusts Jones, Rojo and Smalling, as well as already investing in both Bailly and Lindelof during the two summer windows he has had.”
“But I imagine if rumours of full-backs Darmian and Daley Blind leaving have substance, as well as the uncertainty surrounding Luke Shaw and Valencia/Young’s age, perhaps Jose will act fast in order to bolster his options. However, I’m unsure new signings will necessarily improve United’s team performances from a defensive point of view while Mourinho remains happy to see out one goal leads and invite pressure.”
Perhaps that last point is the most important one. United’s willingness to win games by the odd goal of late, sitting deep towards the end of games, means that Mourinho’s side are always on edge right up until the end. That, and fixture congestion, mean that the manager now has something of a selection dilemma with two games in three days to figure out over the New Year period. There was a mocking reaction to Mourinho’s moans that United have the least rest time in the Premier League over the festive period, but is that really an excuse?
NM: “Every side in the league has to deal with fixture congestion over the festive period, and with the resources at Jose’s disposal I think there should be absolutely no complaints from him about tired stars. As far as I’m concerned, United have academy stars that could push for a place in Southampton and Everton’s midfields – so why not?”
“It’s clear that Jose has to rotate his midfield during the two games, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Juan Mata involved in a more defensive role than what he’s used to. Overall I think Mourinho should have no complaints over his options, but it must be noted that Michael Carrick’s absence this season has been a huge loss.”
Southampton, meanwhile, are also without some key players and will have to rotate, top. The most worrying of which is surely Charlie Austin. The Englishman is Saints’ top scorer this season, and whilst Manolo Gabbiadini has found the net half as many times as his teammate, Shane Long is yet to score all season and is in the middle of a severe goal drought. Even if Pellegrino can sort his defence out, it’s the other end which might prove most problematic – how can the manager be brave and get something out of this United side on poor form?
JB: “I’m not sure it would be brave, but Pellegrino is probably best with going with a defensive formation similar to the one that he chose against Manchester City and Chelsea in the last month or so.
“The Argentine chose to go with a 3-5-2 system at the Etihad, but the fact that he will be without first-choice wing-backs Ryan Bertrand and Cedric Soares – and striker Charlie Austin – may alter his thinking on Saturday.
“That said, I would still line up with Jack Stephens – after he struggled at right-back against Tottenham – Maya Yoshida, Wesley Hoedt as a back three, Matt Targett and James Ward-Prowse as wing-backs, Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg, Oriol Romeu and Mario Lemina in the middle with Sofiane Boufal and Manolo Gabbiadini up top to bring the goal threat.”
NM: Southampton were crushed by Spurs on Boxing Day, something they will surely not allow to happen again anytime soon. For that reason I think Southampton will set-up extremely defensively and frustrate United as they try and break the deadlock. So I think the key battle in the game will be whether or not United can unlock the Saints’ defence, and if they can then it is down to whether they can put out the game out of sight.
That’s one thing both our experts can agree on: Southampton would be best lining up defensively and looking to spring United on the counter, then. At the other end, United’s out-of form attackers will be key – if they can find their form, it should be a comfortable win for United, if not we could all be in for a long afternoon.
Both, however, also agree on the scoreline, too – 2-0 to the hosts, with Manchester United avenging their Boxing Day draw with Burnley in front of the Old Trafford crowd. But whatever happens, this will be a story of both sides looking to kickstart seasons which have begun to falter of late.
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